The Philippines could elect an independent president in 2010
(Second of three-part series)
What is certain in this country is that local politics is immune from events in the national political arena. This was especially true in 2007 after despite the President’s unity coalition’s humbling defeat in the Senate, she continued to maintain control of the House. In addition, during the 2004 elections, Fernando Poe Jr. managed to beat Mrs. Arroyo in not just a few but many provinces despite the clear handicap in terms of support in the local level since traditionally the administration maintains a stronghold in the local front.
In this scenario, the next president of the Philippines could be elected without massive support from the local politicians. The rules of elections have changed in these last few years. We are now seeing a decline the politics of patronage. In an election climate where the likely candidates for the presidency would come from the swing parties, this could be the best time for a third force to enter the fray.
Perhaps what will happen in 2010 will be the same of what happened in 1992 with the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, the most prominent political party at that time, that involved then Speaker Ramon Mitra and then Defense Secretary Fidel Ramos. Mitra got the party’s presidential nomination but Ramos continued his bid and founded his own party, Lakas.
Let us just assume that Estrada picks Villar as the standard bearer for the opposition. I truly believe this would not matter. Just like 1992, I believe that there is no clear advantage from any of the cast of candidates at this point. So a blessing or a non-blessing from any Vito Corleone would not decide the election. What will decide the election is what matters to every Filipino family at this moment- the economy.
(To be continued)
Nathan Andrada
nathanandrada.blogspot.com
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